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Fed: December hike likely due to low unemployment rate – Danske Bank

Fed: December hike likely due to low unemployment rate – Danske Bank Skip to main content Follow us on: | FXStreet Blog |    Newsletter MENU Show navigation FXStreet FXStreet - The forex market Home RATES & CHARTS TOOLS Live Chart Trading Positions Forecast Poll Rates Table Technical Confluences ASSETS EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD GBP/JPY EUR/JPY Dollar Index Gold Oil SP500 News LATEST FOREX NEWS Latest News Institutional Research LATEST NEWS BY ASSETS EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD USD/CHF EUR/GBP Dollar Index Commodities Bonds Equities Analysis EDITORIAL SELECTION EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD USD/CAD Dollar Index Oil Gold Stocks Commodities Bonds Correlations Support and Resistance Elliott Wave Cycles Sentiment Economic Calendar TOOLS Economic Calendar Interest Rates Market Hours TOP EVENTS Nonfarm Payrolls Fed BoC ECB BoE SNB BoJ RBA RBNZ Live Video SECTIONS Shows Schedule Become Premium MOST POPULAR COACHES Ed Ponsi Giuseppe Basile Sarid Harper Alex Ong Sam Seiden Steve Ruffley Rob Colville Nenad Kerkez Gonçalo Moreira Navin Prithyani David Pegler Walter Peters Education Brokers SECTIONS Forex Brokers Broker News Broker Spreads Home RATES & CHARTS TOOLS Live Chart Trading Positions Forecast Poll Rates Table Technical Confluences ASSETS EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD GBP/JPY EUR/JPY Dollar Index Gold Oil SP500 News LATEST FOREX NEWS Latest News Institutional Research LATEST NEWS BY ASSETS EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD USD/CHF EUR/GBP Dollar Index Commodities Bonds Equities Analysis EDITORIAL SELECTION EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD USD/CAD Dollar Index Oil Gold Stocks Commodities Bonds Correlations Support and Resistance Elliott Wave Cycles Sentiment Economic Calendar TOOLS Economic Calendar Interest Rates Market Hours TOP EVENTS Nonfarm Payrolls Fed BoC ECB BoE SNB BoJ RBA RBNZ Live Video SECTIONS Shows Schedule Become Premium MOST POPULAR COACHES Ed Ponsi Giuseppe Basile Sarid Harper Alex Ong Sam Seiden Steve Ruffley Rob Colville Nenad Kerkez Gonçalo Moreira Navin Prithyani David Pegler Walter Peters Education Brokers SECTIONS Forex Brokers Broker News Broker Spreads ; NEWS | 20 minutes ago Fed: December hike likely due to low unemployment rate – Danske Bank By Sandeep Kanihama Analysts at Danske Bank suggest that most Fed members putting more weight on labour market data relatively to inflation data is the main reason why they still think the Fed will hike in December. Key Quotes “In other words, it is still the belief in the Phillips curve that dominates the Fed. However, we still see a risk Fed will pause its hiking cycle next year due to low inflation, which may not be just ‘transitory’ given the low inflation expectations, although it requires the Fed to put more weight on its inflation mandate. The reason for this is that tightness of the labour market is not the only factor determining wage growth, as second-round effects after many years with low inflation have hit wage growth. When employees expect inflation to remain low, they can live with low wage growth, as real wage growth may still be solid, making it less likely inflation will reach the target.” “Our base case is currently two hikes next year assuming the Fed continues to put more weight on labour market and growth data. At the moment, the markets price in more than 62% probability of a December Fed hike (up from 50% before the meeting) and 1.8 hikes before year-end 2018. However, as we wrote in our preview, it is more difficult to forecast what the Fed does next year in terms of monetary policy given the four vacant seats in the Board of Governors.” Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. 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