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Daily Financial Market News

Mon, 22 Jan 2018 17:50:00 GMT

FX Markets Turn to BOJ & ECB Rate Decision, UK & US GDP in Week Ahead

FX Markets Turn to BOJ & ECB Rate Decision, UK & US GDP in Week Ahead Search DailyFX Home Rates Charts News Market News Real-Time News Daily Briefings Forecast Market Alerts DailyFX Authors Articles Market News Headlines Traders Urged to Respond to Proposed European Rule Changes Euro May Shrug Off Soft PMI Data, Looking Ahead to ECB Meeting AUD/USD Rally Approaching Initial Resistance Targets Technical Analysis Analysis Technical Analyst Picks Support & Resistance Daily Technical Reports Pivot Points Sentiment Articles Algorithmic Trading Technical Analysis Headlines FTSE Technical Outlook – Consolidation Period Would Do Some Good Japanese Yen Technical Analysis: USD/JPY Wilts, 107 Could Beckon As Dollar Weakness Presists, Yen May Rally Calendars Economic Calendar Webinar Calendar Central Bank Rates Dividend Calendar Forex Economic Calendar Time Event Actual Forecast Rates Charts Education Education Beginner Intermediate Advanced Expert Free Trading Guides DAILYFX PLUS × Get the best parts of DailyFX.com in the new DailyFX App Download × Join Us For Our Free Webinars Get daily market analysis from our in-house experts Choose from more than 25 webinars each week Put your questions to our experts in real-time Q&As Register now Want to hold off on improving your trading? Click here to dismiss. × Get Your Free Trading Guides With your broad range of free expert guides, you'll explore: The basics of forex trading and how to develop your startegy Foundational knowledge to help you develop an edge in the market What's ahead for major FX pairs, Gold, Oil and more Download a Free Guide Want to hold off on improving your trading? Click here to dismiss. EUR/USD Low High View More Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day. News Euro May Shrug Off Soft PMI Data, Looking Ahead to ECB Meeting USD & JPY Get Haven Bids as Trump Protectionism Returns EUR/USD Boosted as German Economic Sentiment Soars GBP/USD Low High View More Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day. News Investor Sentiment Remains Buoyant as US Government Shutdown Ends USD & JPY Get Haven Bids as Trump Protectionism Returns A Weekly Technical Perspective on GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF USD/JPY Low High View More Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day. News USD/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis Points Towards 107 Japanese Yen Technical Analysis: USD/JPY Wilts, 107 Could Beckon Japanese Yen Shrugs at Strong Local Data After Dovish BOJ Gold Low High View More Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day. News Trading Outlook for Gold & Silver, Crude Oil, Copper, DAX & More Gold Prices Rise Even as US Government Shutdown Ends Gold Awaits Dollar’s Lead Before Deciding Breakout or Reversal Oil Low High View More Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day. News Gold Prices Rise Even as US Government Shutdown Ends Weekly Technical Outlook- USD Warning Signs of Stretched Price Action Crude Oil Prices Struggle as Gold Eyes US Government Shutdown BITCOIN Low High View More Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day. News Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple; Technical Support Still Needed Bitcoin Shifts to a Mixed Trading Bias Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple Prices Crumble, Market Capitalization Slashed View More More Real-Time News Facebook Twitter Youtube Google + FX Markets Turn to BOJ & ECB Rate Decision, UK & US GDP in Week Ahead by  Christopher Vecchio, Sr. Currency Strategist  News events, market reactions, and macro trends. Connect via: Talking Points: - The US Dollar begins the week lower as the US federal government shutdown enters day three, but it may be a non-issue soon as the Senate is set to vote to reopen the government immediately. - In terms of central banks, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are due to meet this week but neither is expected to change policy in a meaningful way. - Retail trader positioning still points to weakness for the US Dollar and strength for US stocks in the coming week. Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EST/12 :30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below. 01/23 Tuesday | --:-- GMT | JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision The monthly Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement is expected to see rates remain at -0.10% with the 10-year JGB yield target unchanged around 0%. Consumer price inflation in Japan rose by +0.9% in November 2017, and is expected to tick up to +1.1% in December 2017 (due later in the week) – both of which remain below the BOJ’s +2% target. Despite the fact that the BOJ has begun what some may consider to be a “stealth taper,” it doesn’t appear that the BOJ will be ready to make any more changes to its policy in the near-term. Even as it begins to see a future in which it can end its QE program, expect the BOJ to retain the mantle of ‘most dovish G7 central bank’ for the foreseeable future. Pairs to Watch: AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/JPY 01/24 Wednesday | 21:45 GMT | NZD Consumer Price Index (4Q) New Zealand is expe cted to see Q 4 ’17 inflation figures hold steady relative to the prior quarter , with changes in energy prices and the New Zealand Dollar trade-weighted exchange rate essentially coming in as a wash . As a result, we’re looking for the Q4 ’17 New Zealand CPI figure to come in a t +1.9 % (y/y), which would be the third consecutive quarter with sub-2% inflation. Another reading below the RBNZ’s medium-term target should keep rate hike speculation for the first half of 2018 tempered. Pairs to Watch: AUD/NZD, NZD/JPY, NZD/USD 01/25 Thursday | 12:45 GMT | EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision & Press Conference The ECB’s expected exchange rate for 2018 for EUR/USD comes in at 1.1700, meaning Friday’s close at 1.2214 was closing in on a +5% move (1.2285) above the year-end target, a threshold the ECB has previously bristled at once broached. But considering that the coming policy meeting is one without a new set of Staff Economic Projections (SEP) – those are due next in March – there’s unlikely to be a formal shift in ECB policy on Thursday. Instead, ECB President Mario Draghi will likely caution market participants about how further Euro strength could get in the way of achieving the medium-term inflation target. The evidence he can point to is fresh in recent memory, with the final December Euro-Zone CPI report showing headline inflation at +1.4% y/y; it isn’t a stretch to suggest another sharp move higher in the Euro trade-weighted exchange rate could prove disinflationary. We expect the Euro to face a minor setback as a result of the ECB rate decision this week, but not significantly and for not that long. Pairs to Watch: EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD 01/26 Friday | 09:3 0 GMT | GBP Gross Domestic Product (4Q A) The first look at Q4’17 UK GDP is expected to show the UK economy grew +1.4%, down from a prior rate of +1.7% (annualized). The quarter-on-quarter figure however is expected to a steady reading at +0.4%. The latest retail sales figures, released last week and included in Q4’17 GDP data, disappointed at +1.3% versus +2.6% expected (y/y), which bodes poorly for GDP. A combination of stagnating wage growth and rising inflation had crimped consumer expenditure, until recently the prime growth driver in post-Brexit UK. The preliminary UK GDP reading is published around 25 days after the end of the quarter and is based on 44% of actual data. The second estimate is released around seven and a half weeks after the end of the quarter and is based on around 80% of actual data. The third estimate is released 90 days after the quarter’s end and is based on around 91% of actual data. Pairs to Watch: EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY, GBP/USD 01/26 Friday | 13:3 0 GMT | USD Gross Domestic Product (4Q A) Annualized US GDP in Q4 ’17 is expected to come in at an initial growth rate of +3.0% from +3.2% in Q3’17 , according to a Bloomberg News survey. Overall, there still seems to be a sharp divide between ‘soft’ and ‘hard’ economic data, with confidence readings surging without a commensurate gain in actual economic activity. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast se es last quarter’s growth at +3.4 %, a bit more rich than most surveys. Evidence of a rebound in growth should confirm confidence in the Fed’s projected tightening path, which is currently pointing to a rate hike in March 2018 . Pairs to Watch: GBP/USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY Read more: The Big Question This Week: Is the Euro Too Strong? --- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com . Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX . To receive this analyst’s reports, sign up for his distribution list . Don’t trade FX but want to learn more? Read the DailyFX Trading Guides. DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets. Related Articles Previous Articles From 5 key events Related Prev Articles   Traders Urged to Respond to Proposed European Rule Changes   Euro May Shrug Off Soft PMI Data, Looking Ahead to ECB Meeting   AUD/USD Rally Approaching Initial Resistance Targets   AUD/USD Rate Rally Stalls Ahead of 2017-High; RSI Sell Signal on Tap   USD & JPY Get Haven Bids as Trump Protectionism Returns   FX Markets Look to UK & EZ CPI, BOC Rate Decision, Aussie Employment   FX Markets Tracking Global Equities, US Dollar Awaits CPI & Retail Sales   FX Markets Start the New Year with Euro-Zone CPI, US NFP in Sight   Volatility Won’t Stay Low Forever: Political Risks Set to Rise in 2018   FX Markets Have Busy Week with UK & US CPI, Plus BOE, ECB, & FOMC Advertisement Upcoming Events Economic Event Importance Actual - Forecast - Previous Importance Actual - Forecast - Previous Forex Economic Calendar A:  Actual   F:  Forecast     P:  Previous NEWS Articles Real Time News Daily Briefings Forecasts DailyFX Authors TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Articles Analyst Picks Support & Resistance Pivot Points Sentiment CALENDAR Economic Calendar Webinar Calendar Central Bank Rates Dividend Calendar EDUCATION Forex Trading University Trading Guide DAILYFX PLUS RATES CHARTS RSS Past performance is no indication of future results. 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